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Hyperbolic space has proven to be well-suited for capturing hierarchical relations in data, such as trees and directed acyclic graphs. Prior work introduced the concept of entailment cones, which uses partial orders defined by nested cones in the Poincar'e ball to model hierarchies. Here, we introduce the ``shadow cones" framework, a physics-inspired entailment cone construction. Specifically, we model partial orders as subset relations between shadows formed by a light source and opaque objects in hyperbolic space. The shadow cones framework generalizes entailment cones to a broad class of formulations and hyperbolic space models beyond the Poincar'e ball. This results in clear advantages over existing constructions: for example, shadow cones possess better optimization properties over constructions limited to the Poincar'e ball. Our experiments on datasets of various sizes and hierarchical structures show that shadow cones consistently and significantly outperform existing entailment cone constructions. These results indicate that shadow cones are an effective way to model partial orders in hyperbolic space, offering physically intuitive and novel insights about the nature of such structures. 

Obtaining annotations for large training sets is expen- sive, especially in settings where domain knowledge is re- quired, such as behavior analysis. Weak supervision has been studied to reduce annotation costs by using weak la- bels from task-specific labeling functions (LFs) to augment ground truth labels. However, domain experts still need to hand-craft different LFs for different tasks, limiting scal- ability. To reduce expert effort, we present AutoSWAP: a framework for automatically synthesizing data-efficient task-level LFs. The key to our approach is to efficiently represent expert knowledge in a reusable domain-specific language and more general domain-level LFs, with which we use state-of-the-art program synthesis techniques and a small labeled dataset to generate task-level LFs. Addition- ally, we propose a novel structural diversity cost that allows for efficient synthesis of diverse sets of LFs, further improv- ing AutoSWAP’s performance. We evaluate AutoSWAP in three behavior analysis domains and demonstrate that Au- toSWAP outperforms existing approaches using only a frac- tion of the data. Our results suggest that AutoSWAP is an effective way to automatically generate LFs that can signif- icantly reduce expert effort for behavior analysis. 

Abstract Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.